Gillibrand in the cross hairs

There must be more people gunning for New York's 20th Congressional District seat than there are candidates for president in 2008. And U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Hudson, hasn't even made it to the half-year mark in office.

Today, I got an e-mail promoting a small-donations pledge from two more 20th District candidates, a Republican named John Wallace from Columbia County and a Democrat named Morris Guller from Greene County. Other announced and rumored candidates include Richard Wager, Sandy Treadwell and John Sweeney, the incumbent whom Gillibrand beat in November.

As a reporter who has covered a handful of Congressional elections in the past, I find this quite refreshing. When I worked in Wausau, Wis., the congressman was House Appropriations heavyweight Dave Obey, our hometown Democrat, who has been in office since Nixon was president. Needless to say, elections in Wisconsin's 7th District were humdrum affairs. No Democrat ever challenged Obey. The Republicans didn't even bother looking for a legitimate candidate. And most of the poor underdogs who ran against Obey were little more than sacrificial lambs.

What's different about Gillibrand?

First of all, she's new. It's nearly impossible to beat Obey now that he has served so many years in Congress. As a freshman congresswoman, however, Gillibrand is still vulnerable. This may be the Republicans' best chance of ousting her before she becomes one of those unbeatable incumbents.

The other big factor is the 20th District, which stretches from Poughkeepsie north toward the Canadian border. Its electorate is heavily Republican – 43 percent of registered voters as of April, compared to 25 percent of voters registered as Democrats. So Gillibrand pulled off quite the upset last year, and Republicans figure its their turn in November 2008.

In the 19th District, where Democrat John Hall also upset an incumbent Republican in November, Republicans still have the edge but not by much. Of all registered voters as of April, 36 percent were Republicans and 33 percent were Democrats, according to the latest data from the State Elections Board.

Of course, it's insanely early for most voters to be thinking about the next election when Gillibrand still has three fourths of her two-year term left to serve. But the political world follows a different schedule. Potential candidates have to get their momentum going now or forget about booking that victory party on election night.

As for Dave Obey, the best the Republicans can hope for is that he gets tapped for a cabinet job in the next president's administration. After all, President Bush did Democrats a favor in 2001 when he named Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson as health and human services secretary, paving the way for Democrat Jim Doyle to win the gubernatorial election in 2002. But I digress.

Wager to leave job, hit campaign trail

Richard Wager checked in today to pass along this news: He's planning to leave his job in New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's administration at the end of the month to begin campaigning for Congress full time in July.

"Things are coming together awfully well!" Wager said in an e-mail.

Wager is vying for the Republican nomination in the 20th District to challenge U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democrat from Hudson who was elected to her first two-year term in November. Gillibrand will be up for re-election in November 2008.

Wager, a native of Hyde Park, recently bought a house in the Millbrook area. He is the son of former Poughkeepsie Journal publisher Dick Wager.

Michael Moore at Marist?

Not being an expert on health care and the numerous proposals calling for universal coverage, I found Congressman John Hall's forum on the issue last night at Marist College quite informative, and I'm sure I wasn't the only one.

But I had a sneaking suspicion that a significant portion of the audience fell under the heading "preaching to the converted." One young man, a Marist student who said he suffers from a disability and from the health insurance nightmare that comes with it, made an impassioned plea for help to John Hall, however, many of the people who addressed the panel identified themselves as affiliated with advocacy organizations, typically Democratic or progressive in nature. Some had set up a display outside the auditorium with signs and pamphlets calling for single-payer national health care coverage, and I rode on the elevator before the forum with a man and his daughter, a Vermont physician, who each clutched signs advocating the same.

Of course, their views count as much as "ordinary" residents, and Hall seemed conscious of the diverse backgrounds of his audience. He also is scheduled to meet later this week with small business owners.

So what does this all have to do with Michael Moore, you ask? Not much. Except that before the forum a young woman, possibly college-age, tried to stick a hand-made sign to the wall outside the auditorium announcing the upcoming release of Moore's new documentary, "Sicko," about the country's health care conundrum.

Hall's chief of staff, Jean Bordewich, sternly told the woman to take the sign down. Hall wanted to hear all points of view, Bordewich said, and wouldn't let the forum be hijacked by one side or the other. Even so, she said it was fine to hand out the informational brochures, which could never hope to be as polarizing as the director of "Fahrenheit 9/11."

Wager will call Millbrook home

As Richard Wager tries to gain momentum for a bid for Congress in the 20th District, he can check one thing off his list: an address in the district.

Wager, a Republican, is a native of Hyde Park but lives in Manhattan, where he works for the administration of Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He and his wife closed Friday on a house in Millbrook, and he plans to spend more and more time upstate as the year progresses.

"We've got a wonderful house in a great little spot," Wager said. Three bedrooms. Built in 1898. Just outside the village. Furniture on the way.

Straw Poll had to ask: What did you pay for the place?

Wager declined to answer.

"It's good reconnecting with old friends," he said. "I obviously love the area, so we're very excited about the house."

And he said his fundraising for a potential 2008 challenge to U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Hudson, has been going so well that he's changed his exploratory committee to a full-fledged campaign committee: Wager for Congress.

More Congressional election buzz

The race toward the starting line of the race for Congress in the mid-Hudson Valley continues. (Game time: November 2008.)

Roll Call, the insider newspaper on Capitol Hill, reported today that two multimillionaire Republicans are eyeing challenges to the just-elected Democrats in the 19th and 20th Congressional districts.

In the 20th District, which spans from Poughkeepsie to northern New York, former New York Republican Chairman Sandy Treadwell has filed papers to explore a challenge Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Hudson, according to Roll Call.

And in the 19th District, from Poughkeepsie south into Westchester, Andrew Saul, "a veteran of the fashion industry and the investment world," is considering a bid for the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. John Hall, D-Dover Plains, Roll Call reported.

The Roll Call story quotes Dutchess County Republican Chairwoman Corrine Weber as saying it might be a tough decision for county Republicans between Treadwell and fellow 20th District hopeful Richard Wager, a native of Hyde Park and son of a former Poughkeepsie Journal publisher.

You can access the Roll Call story here, but you'll need to subscribe to the Web site to read more than the first paragraph.

Campaign dollars still rolling in

I know it's a long time until the 2008 Congressional elections, but ...

Rep. John Hall, D-Dover Plains, had amassed $342,000 in campaign cash by the end of the latest federal reporting period, which ended March 31. He started the period on Jan. 1 with $63,000, according to the Federal Election Commision.

Hall beat incumbent Republican Rep. Sue Kelly in November to win his first two-year term in Congress, and he isn't the only freshman with a growing war chest.

Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Hudson, had $552,000 in cash on had as of March 31. She started the quarter with $44,000 after unseating Rep. John Sweeney, the Republican incumbent, in November.

Contributions from political committees, as opposed to individuals, totaled about 30 percent of receipts for each representative.

Rep. Maurice Hinchey, D-Hurley, who ran unopposed last year, had a modest $69,000 on March 31.

A (possible) rival for Hall

With Democrats now monopolizing the Hudson Valley's seats in Congress, it should come as no surprise that Valley Republicans already are mobilizing for the 2008 elections.

Add Kieran Lalor to the list of Republican hopefuls.

Lalor, a native of Wappingers Falls, served six years in the Marine Corps and now lives with his family in Peekskill. He is an Iraq war vet and a self-described national security activist who has set his sights on unseating U.S. Rep. John Hall, the freshman Democrat from Dover Plains.

Federal campaign finance reports for the first quarter of 2007 won't be released until later this month, but Lalor said today his exploratory committee raised $20,000 in that period.

"This is an amazing accomplishment considering I didn’t have a penny on March 1 when I launched my website," he said in an e-mail.

Hall isn't the only one looking over his shoulder. U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Hudson, also serving her first two-year term in Congress, has her own list of potential Republican opponents, including Richard Wager, a native of Hyde Park (see previous Straw Poll post).

It's natural for Republicans to go after potentially vulnerable freshman like Gillibrand and Hall, who each won narrow victories against Republican incumbents last fall. But how about finding a challenger for U.S. Rep. Maurice Hinchey?

Hinchey, D-Hurley, is serving his eighth term after running unopposed last year. Any Republicans in the 22th District up for that battle in 2008?

A (possible) rival for Gillibrand

It's official. Richard Wager might be a candidate for Congress.

Wager, son of former long-time Poughkeepsie Journal publisher Dick Wager, filed papers this week to create an exploratory committee to, well, explore the possibility of challenging U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Hudson, in 2008.

"I'm excited to continue traveling the district listening to the hopes and concerns of its residents," Wager said in an e-mail. He plans to hold his first fundraiser this month with family and friends in his hometown of Hyde Park.

Wager, 36, is a 1989 Franklin D. Roosevelt High School graduate and works as an aide in the Republican administration of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He is one of several people mentioned as possible candidates for the Republican nomination in the 20th District, including former Congressman John Sweeney, whom Gillibrand defeated in November to win election to her first two-year term in Congress.

Wager also professes to be an avid reader of this blog, which predates his exploratory committee by only a couple weeks.