Gillibrand in the cross hairs

There must be more people gunning for New York's 20th Congressional District seat than there are candidates for president in 2008. And U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-Hudson, hasn't even made it to the half-year mark in office.

Today, I got an e-mail promoting a small-donations pledge from two more 20th District candidates, a Republican named John Wallace from Columbia County and a Democrat named Morris Guller from Greene County. Other announced and rumored candidates include Richard Wager, Sandy Treadwell and John Sweeney, the incumbent whom Gillibrand beat in November.

As a reporter who has covered a handful of Congressional elections in the past, I find this quite refreshing. When I worked in Wausau, Wis., the congressman was House Appropriations heavyweight Dave Obey, our hometown Democrat, who has been in office since Nixon was president. Needless to say, elections in Wisconsin's 7th District were humdrum affairs. No Democrat ever challenged Obey. The Republicans didn't even bother looking for a legitimate candidate. And most of the poor underdogs who ran against Obey were little more than sacrificial lambs.

What's different about Gillibrand?

First of all, she's new. It's nearly impossible to beat Obey now that he has served so many years in Congress. As a freshman congresswoman, however, Gillibrand is still vulnerable. This may be the Republicans' best chance of ousting her before she becomes one of those unbeatable incumbents.

The other big factor is the 20th District, which stretches from Poughkeepsie north toward the Canadian border. Its electorate is heavily Republican – 43 percent of registered voters as of April, compared to 25 percent of voters registered as Democrats. So Gillibrand pulled off quite the upset last year, and Republicans figure its their turn in November 2008.

In the 19th District, where Democrat John Hall also upset an incumbent Republican in November, Republicans still have the edge but not by much. Of all registered voters as of April, 36 percent were Republicans and 33 percent were Democrats, according to the latest data from the State Elections Board.

Of course, it's insanely early for most voters to be thinking about the next election when Gillibrand still has three fourths of her two-year term left to serve. But the political world follows a different schedule. Potential candidates have to get their momentum going now or forget about booking that victory party on election night.

As for Dave Obey, the best the Republicans can hope for is that he gets tapped for a cabinet job in the next president's administration. After all, President Bush did Democrats a favor in 2001 when he named Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson as health and human services secretary, paving the way for Democrat Jim Doyle to win the gubernatorial election in 2002. But I digress.